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The ice is definitely deteriorating, and much more open water in the first and second ponds already. However, we still see one or two fishermen out on the ice every day!
Tonight I have a message from Manuel "Chico" Carcoba who logged in Ice-Out tickets for us for many years. Chico has a formula for when the ice will go out of Joe's Pond. Here is what he says:
AS ALWAYS WHEN THE ICE GOES OUT IN N. MONTPELIER POND [4/1] THE ICE ON WOODBURY POND GOES OUT WITHIN 2 WKS. THEN WITHIN 2 WEEKS JOE'S GOES OUT. SO---JOES WILL GO OUT NO LATER THAN 4/28. MY TKT SAYS I'M WRONG. CHICO
P.S. FUN TO GUESS MOTHER NATURE'S COURSE
Chico didn't say what the date on his ticket is - but we wish him luck. This is one guessing game that is impossible to beat with any sort of formula - it's all up to the weather. Tonight we're getting more snow, and the next couple of days will be cold, wet and no fun at all. Fred went to W. Danville this morning and said the road between us and Rt. 2 is beginning to show signs of spring breakup, so you can tell things are just about normal here at Joe's Pond. Fred posted his "road report" on the comments page so you can read more details there.
Ok, I just checked my e-mail and found a message from Bob Labrie who runs the Goshen, MA Meltdown. The ice went out there on Saturday. Bob has made a prediction based on . . . well, you decide how he does it:
Bob Labrie wrote:
You can get a better sense of how the pond is (or isn't) melting from
this picture Fred took this morning from the road that goes up past "Pete" Blackadar's to the new house her nephew built a couple years ago. The view is lovely from there - it's no wonder they picked that spot for their new home. Pete also has a nice view, but her house (on the left) isn't quite as far up the hill. The FedEx truck on Rt. 2 is blocking the view of the farmhouse on W. Shore Rd. that was part of the Blackadar farm and is now owned by Jane Ward. Except for the bare ground and driveway, this could almost be a picture of the pond taken in January. (Click for a larger picture.) If you look closely at the upper left corner of the pond you can see that there's an indication that there is a little open water showing by Pearl's Island where the channel is.
We watched two deer last night at about dusk. They were munching on the patches of bare ground, and one discovered there are apples left over under the crab apple tree. That must have been a treat! We were pleased they looked so healthy. Sometimes after a long winter deer look pretty scrawny. It was too dark to get pictures, and they were very aware of us watching from our big windows. They were particularly interested when Woody hopped up onto the window sill and sat watching them. He was happy to be inside - I expect he remembered being chased by a big doe last spring when he (we think) mistook her fawn for a dog. Woody likes dogs, but not other cats, and since the fawn was about his size, I guess he figured he'd make friends with that puppy - until mother deer took after him. He hid in the woodpile until the doe and fawn left and I went to the door and called him in. Sometimes I think he's a slow learner, but I do believe he remembered the scare that doe gave him. I wish we could teach him not to bring live mice into the house. He's brought in two from the garage recently. I guess they lived there last winter - we'll probably find evidence of the nest in among the stacks of wood eventually. Fred caught on baby mouse in his hands, but we had to trap the adult one.
We have more wood left this year - due to the weatherization we had done in December. It has taken quite a bit less to heat the house, an although Fred says it wasn't as cold this winter as sometimes, there's been a big difference in the amount of fuel we've used, and we both think the weatherization had a big impact. I'll be anxious to see if the house stays cooler this summer . . . heck, I'm just anxious for summer.
Chico didn't say what the date on his ticket is - but we wish him luck. This is one guessing game that is impossible to beat with any sort of formula - it's all up to the weather. Tonight we're getting more snow, and the next couple of days will be cold, wet and no fun at all. Fred went to W. Danville this morning and said the road between us and Rt. 2 is beginning to show signs of spring breakup, so you can tell things are just about normal here at Joe's Pond. Fred posted his "road report" on the comments page so you can read more details there.
Ok, I just checked my e-mail and found a message from Bob Labrie who runs the Goshen, MA Meltdown. The ice went out there on Saturday. Bob has made a prediction based on . . . well, you decide how he does it:
Bob Labrie wrote:
I don't know, Bob, but we'll let you know as soon as the ice goes out here. If it doesn't work out, you'll just have to go back to the drawing board and adjust your calculations.I've got a new way to predict when the ice on Joe's Pond will go out. I refer to it as Goshen's Unusually Easy Solution to Success or G.U.E.S.S.It involves nothing more than statistics.Goshen's Meltdown has been going on since 2005. As a result, definitive records only exist for the past 4 years. Over the past 4 years, the difference between the time our ice went out and your ice went out averaged 10 days, 18 hours and 10 minutes.So, my GUESS for when the ice will go out on Joe's Pond is:Wednesday, April 15th at 5:02 p.m.This calculation can only become more refined as time goes by.What do you think?Bob
You can get a better sense of how the pond is (or isn't) melting from
this picture Fred took this morning from the road that goes up past "Pete" Blackadar's to the new house her nephew built a couple years ago. The view is lovely from there - it's no wonder they picked that spot for their new home. Pete also has a nice view, but her house (on the left) isn't quite as far up the hill. The FedEx truck on Rt. 2 is blocking the view of the farmhouse on W. Shore Rd. that was part of the Blackadar farm and is now owned by Jane Ward. Except for the bare ground and driveway, this could almost be a picture of the pond taken in January. (Click for a larger picture.) If you look closely at the upper left corner of the pond you can see that there's an indication that there is a little open water showing by Pearl's Island where the channel is.We watched two deer last night at about dusk. They were munching on the patches of bare ground, and one discovered there are apples left over under the crab apple tree. That must have been a treat! We were pleased they looked so healthy. Sometimes after a long winter deer look pretty scrawny. It was too dark to get pictures, and they were very aware of us watching from our big windows. They were particularly interested when Woody hopped up onto the window sill and sat watching them. He was happy to be inside - I expect he remembered being chased by a big doe last spring when he (we think) mistook her fawn for a dog. Woody likes dogs, but not other cats, and since the fawn was about his size, I guess he figured he'd make friends with that puppy - until mother deer took after him. He hid in the woodpile until the doe and fawn left and I went to the door and called him in. Sometimes I think he's a slow learner, but I do believe he remembered the scare that doe gave him. I wish we could teach him not to bring live mice into the house. He's brought in two from the garage recently. I guess they lived there last winter - we'll probably find evidence of the nest in among the stacks of wood eventually. Fred caught on baby mouse in his hands, but we had to trap the adult one.
We have more wood left this year - due to the weatherization we had done in December. It has taken quite a bit less to heat the house, an although Fred says it wasn't as cold this winter as sometimes, there's been a big difference in the amount of fuel we've used, and we both think the weatherization had a big impact. I'll be anxious to see if the house stays cooler this summer . . . heck, I'm just anxious for summer.
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