Sunday, November 25, 2018

    We've had a very mild day today with temps in the 40s, light rain, and considerable fog. There is no wind, at least not here on our west shore hillside - in West Danville, I'm sure there's plenty of wind. The snowpack has diminished considerably, but I expect it will get colder tonight and we may get a little fresh snow. I think there is still close to a foot on the ground. We may have daytime temperatures right around freezing for the next two or three days, and then it will be cooling down again, but just slightly. The pond could open up again, and that is just what the old timers will tell you usually happens - two or three freeze-overs and thaws before it closes in for the winter.
     I heard on one of the Burlington TV stations last night that there were ice fishermen on one of the quiet bays of Lake Champlain yesterday. Either very brave or very foolish. I like to think ice fishermen know what is safe for ice - but then every year we have someone fishing going through the ice either with a truck, a snow machine, or on foot. So not all of them are ice smart.
      The national report on global warming paints a gloomy picture of the future unless something is done to alter the trend of climate change. I found these charts on an official Vermont website showing trends here in our state. I thought you might be interested.

     I have taken measurements of precipitation since the spring of 2009. Just for fun, I looked back to see what sort of trend there might be. My weather station is just one of many throughout Vermont, but my reports are combined to make up the overall picture.  I made a chart of precipitation I've recorded over the past nine years.
      I was amused that my hand-drawn chart of ice-out dates had been re-done and is included on the "official" Vermont website. That is the last chart below. I guess I should update that - I'll plan to do that soon and have Fred post it on the website. I'll try to come up with a design that will be easier to understand than the one that's posted there now.
     It appears our climate is definitely changing and we know from this year's early snow and bitterly cold weather this is one of those exceptional years we may be seeing more of in the future. It could be we're going to experience colder winters and hotter summers. More snow or less? The precipitation I measure includes snow, of course, and that seems to me to be pretty consistent. A few high and low years, but I don't really see a trend. But then, I'm no expert - I just take the measurements and make the report every morning. For almost 10 years now. Seems like only yesterday I went for training at a meeting in Greensboro that lovely June evening in 2009.

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